Read our week 1 overview HERE
Sadly, something happened and the post disappeared. This is some approximation of that post.
Week 2 of the USTA Pro Circuit Australian Open Wild Card Challenge was another successful one for US women: 5 of 8 quarterfinalists, 3 of 4 semifinalists, and both finalists. It also threw a big jolt in the Wild Card Challenge, as Falconi surged into the lead, and Grace Min found herself yet again just outside the Top 100 and in limbo for Australian Open direct entry.
I didn't profile Brady in my pre-Challenge overview, as despite her success in pro events this year, I didn't consider her a threat for the wildcard (her first round loss in Macon to qualifier Beatriz Haddad Maia didn't change my mind). But in retrospect it was obviously a poor choice by me, as she reached the New Braunfels final!
Here's where we stand after two of the three tournaments (also available here):
1. Falconi (108)
2. Min (63)
3. Brady (49)
4. Boserup (44)
5(T). Chirico (16)
5(T). Marand (16)
7(T). Brengle (15)
7(T). Halbauer (15)
7(T). Glatch (15)
10(T). Tatishvili (9)
10(T). Muhammad (9)
11(T). Oudin (8)
11(T). Pera (8)
11(T). Stewart (8)
Several with 1 or 2 points.
With one week to go, remember that only a player's top two results count - so Falconi, for instance, having reached a semi and winning a title can only add to her point total with a finals finish in Captiva Island. Unless I have everything wrong, only Falconi, Min, and Brady are still in contention to win the USTAPCAOWC outright. Falconi is far enough in the lead that only a Brady or Min title will take the wildcard from her.
BUT! If either Min or Falconi wins Captiva Island, they will likely earn direct entry to the Australian Open. In fact, a Min semifinal puts her very close. So the following scenario is possible: Falconi wins Captiva, beating Min in the semis, and then a finalist such as Tatishvili, Vickery, Marand, or Pera gets 48 points to put her above Brady - into 3rd place in the Wildcard Challenge, but effectively into 1st.
And in addition to regular math coming into play, results at events such as Taipei $125K or even the Asuncion $50K at the end of the month could play into the ultimate result.
Aaaanyway, here's a rundown of where eleven women stand, post-New Braunfels. For the record, the rankings following their names represent the official WTA year-end rankings, as the rankings year ended with the Tournament of Champions in Sofia:
Grace Min (#103/-1)
What was accomplished in New Braunfels: Lost QF to Brady 75 62. Crazily, she dropped in the standings despite adding a not-insignificant 15 points. Still in decent shape for direct entry to the Australian Open, but now on the outside looking in for the USTAPCAOWCC.
Points left to defend this fall: 0
Captiva Island seed & opponent: #1 seed, faces Maria Sanchez
What's still at stake: A Captiva Island semifinal would *probably* put her in the Top 100. A final would *probably* secure direct entry into the Australian Open, and giving her wildcard to someone else. A title would definitely do both. A quarterfinal or worse and everything is in doubt.
Irina Falconi (#114/+18)
What was accomplished in New Braunfels: Won her first singles title since 2010! In the driver's seat for the wildcard into the Australian Open (where she's defending 70 points)
Points left to defend this fall: 0
Captiva Island seed & opponent: #6 seed, faces Ilona Kremen
What's still at stake: Falconi has assured her second-best year-end finish. Now in her sights are the Top 100, and direct entry to Australia.
Anna Tatishvili (#149/-32)
What was accomplished in New Braunfels: Lost 1st round to Pera 76(7) 63
Points left to defend this fall: 0
Captiva Island seed & opponent: #3 seed, faces Petra Martic
What's still at stake: It's been an ignominious run for fiery former Republic-of-Georgian. Now that her huge cache of Fall 2013 points are gone, hopefully she can focus on getting back to basics.
Melanie Oudin (#165/-6)
Withdrew from Captiva Island and New Braunfels
Points left to defend this fall: 0
What's still at stake: Get healthy, Mel, and attack 2015 with gusto!
Julia Boserup (#177/+17)
What was accomplished in New Braunfels: Lost SF to Falconi 63 62. Came close to assuring her place in the Aussie Open qualies.
Points left to defend this fall: 28
Captiva Island opponent: Qualifier
What's still at stake: Still in position to win the wildcard - but only if Falconi gets direct entry into Oz.
Louisa Chirico (#189/-3)
What was accomplished in New Braunfels: Lost 2R to Hibi 64 36 63.
Points left to defend this fall: 0
Captiva Island opponent: Chieh-Yu Hsu
What's still at stake: The 18-year-old should be in the qualies draw for Melbourne, and with not too much to defend until June, and skills still developing, we could see a nice continued rise up the rankings.
Sachia Vickery (#195/+7)
What was accomplished in New Braunfels: Lost R1 to Goncalves 62 76(2) - her 7th straight loss.
Points left to defend this fall: 0
Captiva Island opponent: Anne-Liz Jeukeng (WC)
What's still at stake: She's still looking okay for Aussie qualies but she will absolutely NOT want to enter 2015 on this kind of losing streak.
Sanaz Marand (#266/-24)
What was accomplished in New Braunfels: Lost R1 to Min 64 61.
Points left to defend this fall: 10
Captiva Island opponent: Mariana Duque-Marino [8]
What's still at stake: Mojo. Lots of mojo.
Jennifer Brady (#267/+60)
What was accomplished in New Braunfels: Lost F to Falconi 76(3) 62
Points left to defend this fall: 0
Captiva Island opponent: Mathilde Johansson
What's still at stake: Who'd have thought - the Australian Open wildcard in her hands. I'd assume she would play, but remember she's still in college!
Asia Muhammad (#291/-27)
What was accomplished in New Braunfels: Lost 1R to Gallovits-Hall 63 16 61
Points left to defend this fall: 0
Captiva Island opponent: Samantha Crawford
What's still at stake: Since beating El Tabakh and Konta in dramatic three-setters in Quebec City in September, Muhammad has lost her last four third sets. She "ends" 2014 just 8 spots ahead of where she ended 2013. She would love a fresh start to 2015 starting now.
Samantha Crawford (#293/-11)
What was accomplished in New Braunfels: Lost 1R to Rogowska 62 64
Points left to defend this fall: 0
Captiva Island opponent: Asia Muhammad
What's still at stake: A nice result to put her (back) into the "young players to watch" conversation.
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