Sunday, November 30, 2014

How'd we do? ATP 2014 version

At the end of 2013, three of us Team USA twitter fans - Baseline Bagels, Lang, and I - compiled our predictions for how the ATP season would play out for American men. With the season now over, here's how we did (I didn't ask the others to include the players' final rankings, just their order among other Americans):

Player (11/24/14 rank)
jokelley
Lang
Baseline Bagels
1. Isner (19)
Isner (15)
Isner
Isner
2. Querrey (35)
Querrey (30)
Querrey
Sock
3. Johnson (37)
#jacksock (75)
Sock
Querrey
4. Sock (42)
Harrison (80)
Harrison
Young
5. Young (57) 
Smyczek (90)
Smyczek
Smyczek
6. Smyczek (115)
Klahn (95)
Young
Harrison
7. Kudla (121)
Young (100)
Kudla
Kudla
8. Ram (140)
Kudla (105)
Williams
Johnson
9. Klahn (148)
Johnson (110)
Sandgren
Klahn
10. Krajicek (152)
Williams/
Sandgren (120)
Baker
Sandgren
















Other players:


11. Russell (161)
12. Odesnik (171)
13. Kuznetsov (181)
14. Harrison (190)
15. Buchanan (191)
16. Jenkins (213)
17. Williams (223)
18. Ginepri (225)
19. Donaldson (260)
20. Fratangelo (265)
46. Sandgren (648)

It's pretty clear who did best, but it's always best to use some objective metric. So stealing using Tennis Grandstand's metric (one point off per position missed, with the worst result replaced by the overall second-worst result - Lang and I were 10 off for Harrison), we have:

1. Baseline Bagels: 32
Pretty much a virtuoso performance. 8 of the 10 correct, missing Ram and Krajicek (and fatally underestimated Sam Querrey!), but got Isner, Kudla, and Klahn exactly right AND he put Johnson the highest and Harrison the lowest of any of us.

Well done, Baseline Bagels! You win ... errr ... a free link to your blog which needs to be updated.

2. jokelley: 45
Yes, I cheated with Williams and Sandgren tied for 10th but because I'm the commissioner and make my own rules as I go along, I'll put a "17" in that spot - 10 for missing Sandgren, 7 for missing Williams. Like the others, I missed Ram and Krajicek and way overestimated Harry.  Really, a poor performance.

The most embarrassing part is that with the exception of Isner, Querrey, and Kudla, I wasn't with TWENTY spots of guessing where any of the others ended up ranked overall. Wow, that's rough.

3. Lang: 83
Lang actually did decently. 6 of her picks were on target or off by only one. But the 4 she missed were really bad misses.  In fact, since her catastrophically bad pick was Brian Baker, I had to give her full points for the Sandgren pick. And she totally missed Steve Johnson - despite his fantastic run at the USTAAOWCPO in Atlanta a year ago. Bad Lang!

In summation, Baseline Bagels proved his insight into USA tennis is the best on the planet; I continue to have a steep learning curve; and Lang sometimes lets her heart lead her in the wrong direction.

Coming soon - ATP & WTA second-half awards (for Americans)!

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