Sunday, November 30, 2014

How'd we do? ATP 2014 version

At the end of 2013, three of us Team USA twitter fans - Baseline Bagels, Lang, and I - compiled our predictions for how the ATP season would play out for American men. With the season now over, here's how we did (I didn't ask the others to include the players' final rankings, just their order among other Americans):

Player (11/24/14 rank)
jokelley
Lang
Baseline Bagels
1. Isner (19)
Isner (15)
Isner
Isner
2. Querrey (35)
Querrey (30)
Querrey
Sock
3. Johnson (37)
#jacksock (75)
Sock
Querrey
4. Sock (42)
Harrison (80)
Harrison
Young
5. Young (57) 
Smyczek (90)
Smyczek
Smyczek
6. Smyczek (115)
Klahn (95)
Young
Harrison
7. Kudla (121)
Young (100)
Kudla
Kudla
8. Ram (140)
Kudla (105)
Williams
Johnson
9. Klahn (148)
Johnson (110)
Sandgren
Klahn
10. Krajicek (152)
Williams/
Sandgren (120)
Baker
Sandgren
















Other players:


11. Russell (161)
12. Odesnik (171)
13. Kuznetsov (181)
14. Harrison (190)
15. Buchanan (191)
16. Jenkins (213)
17. Williams (223)
18. Ginepri (225)
19. Donaldson (260)
20. Fratangelo (265)
46. Sandgren (648)

It's pretty clear who did best, but it's always best to use some objective metric. So stealing using Tennis Grandstand's metric (one point off per position missed, with the worst result replaced by the overall second-worst result - Lang and I were 10 off for Harrison), we have:

1. Baseline Bagels: 32
Pretty much a virtuoso performance. 8 of the 10 correct, missing Ram and Krajicek (and fatally underestimated Sam Querrey!), but got Isner, Kudla, and Klahn exactly right AND he put Johnson the highest and Harrison the lowest of any of us.

Well done, Baseline Bagels! You win ... errr ... a free link to your blog which needs to be updated.

2. jokelley: 45
Yes, I cheated with Williams and Sandgren tied for 10th but because I'm the commissioner and make my own rules as I go along, I'll put a "17" in that spot - 10 for missing Sandgren, 7 for missing Williams. Like the others, I missed Ram and Krajicek and way overestimated Harry.  Really, a poor performance.

The most embarrassing part is that with the exception of Isner, Querrey, and Kudla, I wasn't with TWENTY spots of guessing where any of the others ended up ranked overall. Wow, that's rough.

3. Lang: 83
Lang actually did decently. 6 of her picks were on target or off by only one. But the 4 she missed were really bad misses.  In fact, since her catastrophically bad pick was Brian Baker, I had to give her full points for the Sandgren pick. And she totally missed Steve Johnson - despite his fantastic run at the USTAAOWCPO in Atlanta a year ago. Bad Lang!

In summation, Baseline Bagels proved his insight into USA tennis is the best on the planet; I continue to have a steep learning curve; and Lang sometimes lets her heart lead her in the wrong direction.

Coming soon - ATP & WTA second-half awards (for Americans)!

Saturday, November 29, 2014

How'd I do? WTA version

I think I did pretty well.

As a reminder, here was my prediction for the Top 10 ranked WTA players from the USA at the end of 2014 -- and where I thought they'd finish in the rankings:

How I thought they'd do.\:
1. Serena Williams (2)
2. Sloane Stephens (20)
3. Madison Keys (25)
4. Venus Williams (30)
5. Jamie Hampton (40)
6. Christina McHale (50)
7. Alison Riske (60)
8. CoCo Vandeweghe (70)
9. Varvara Lepchenko (75)
10. Lauren Davis (80)

How they actually did: 
(11/24/2014 ranking) | how far away I was in the order | (how far away I was in their ranking)
1. Serena Williams (1) correct (+1)
2. Venus Williams (18) +2 (+12)
3. Madison Keys (30) correct (-5)
4. Varvara Lepchenko (35) +5 (+40)
5. Sloane Stephens (36) -3 (-16)
6. CoCo Vandeweghe (39) +2 (+31)
7. Alison Riske (43) correct (+17)
8. Christina McHale (52) -2 (-2)
9. Lauren Davis (55) +1 (+25)
10. Shelby Rogers (73) n/a (n/a)
32. Jamie Hampton -27 (-289)

All in all, I did not too shabbily. 9 out of 10, including 3 in the correct position. Of course, the wild card was Hampton's catastrophic injury, which skewed everything. It's not hard to imagine a world in which a healthy Hampton finished ahead of Rogers...

If we were to use the Tennis Grandstand scoring method, I had 21 "points" off. (By that system, the Hampton pick would be replaced with points from the next-worst pick: Lepchenko.)

Generally, I knew I was being a bit conservative in my rankings, and that proved to be the case, with 6 of the players outperforming my guess.  Interestingly, the only player (not counting the injured Hampton) who did significantly worse than I predicted was Stephens - and I thought I was being cautious by picking her at #20! Given that halfway through the season she was still at #24 in the Road to Singapore, with Wimbledon and North American hard courts ahead of her, it still felt like a safe bet. But then her season fell apart, and she only notched 7 more wins (3 on grass, 4 on hard courts) and shut her season down after one match in Guangzhou.

The most pleasant surprises to me were Lepchenko, Vandeweghe, and Rogers.  All three reached finals this year, with CoCo taking her first title. Lepchenko showed her mettle with three-set wins over Radwanska, Jankovic, and Kuznetsova (but also had some tough three-set losses, to Kvitova, Kerber, and in the Seoul final to Pliskova). Rogers, with 513 of her 731 points (70%) coming in just 4 second-half tournaments, would benefit greatly from a solid start to 2015.

And yes, I underestimated Serena and Venus. Foolishly. And not for the first time.

Tomorrow, see how three of us did in our ATP predictions. And then next month I'll feature predictions for 2015.

Friday, November 28, 2014

New USA Career-High Rankings, Nov. 24, 2014

Each week I will bring you a list of USAmerican players who have reached a new career-high ranking. This list is not necessarily exhaustive but covers at least all players in the Top 1000.

New WTA career-high rankings, November 24, 2014

Player name
New CHR
Last wk
*= previous   CHR
+  from last week
Pvs CHR
If prior to last wk
Date achieved
If prior to last wk
Caitlin Whoriskey
327
330*
+3


Rianna Valdes
768
776*
+8


Alexandria Stiteler
788
795
+7
794
11/10/2014
Ingrid Neel
810
815
+5
813
11/10/2014
Kelly Chen
832
841
+9
840
11/3/2014
Nicole Frenkel
836
844*
+8


Emma Higuchi
903
912*
+9


Natalie Suk
910
920*
+10


Daniella Roldan
931
942*
+11


Kristina Smith
988
998*
+10


Terri Fleming
1006
1013*
+7


Caroline Dolehide
1062
1070*
+8


Jessica Ho
1093
1099*
+6


Tina Tehrani
1109
1115*
+6


Jessica Failla
1139
1145*
+6


Andie Daniell
1144
1149*
+5


Alexandra Valenstein
1182
1090*
+8


Dasha Ivanova
1182
1090*
+8


Jessica Golovin
1229
1235*
+6


Alexis Nelson
1229
1235*
+6


























None of these women - predominantly teens, actually - added points this week. This is all just benefiting from others dropping down/out of the rankings.

New ATP career-high rankings, November 24, 2014

Player name
New CHR
Last wk
*= pvs CHR
+  from last wk
Pvs CHR
If prior to last wk
Date achieved
If prior to last wk
Jarmere Jenkins
213
218
+5
216
11/10/2014
Evan Song
522
523*
+1


Alexander Sarkissian
583
595*
+12

11/3/2014
Michael Mmoh
646
649*
+3

11/3/2014
Wil Spencer
849
n/a



Tommy Paul
946
1130
+184
1122
11/10/2014
Collin Johns
1145
1194
+49
1148
10/6/2014
Reilly Opelka
1198
1242*
+44


Alex Rybakov
1535
1836*
+301














Far fewer new highs among the men, but several big jumps.  Jenkins got a boost from his semifinal run at his penultimate tournament in Australia. His title last week will show up on next week's rankings, which will put him in the Top 200.

Sarkissian reached a QF in Mexico F12, while Johns reached the 2nd Round there.  Opelka got to the quarters in Niceville, Fla., beating Rybakov in the 2nd Round. Paul benefited from the withdrawal of top seed Connor Smith, whom he was drawn to face in the first round.

But the story of the week was Wil Spencer.  Making one of the more spectacular rankings splashes in some time, the 25-year-old former University of Georgia player won a five-round wildcard tournament just to reach the Niceville main draw (his first professional tournament since 2012).  He then upset the #2 seed, Peter Heller, in the first round 7-5 in the third set (his first professional main draw win), and then didn't drop another set until the second set of the final vs. Peter Nagy. Spencer won the third set 6-4 for his first pro title. Amazing.

Here's a fun overview of the final and the improbability of it all.

Saturday, November 22, 2014

New USA Career-High Rankings, Nov. 17, 2014

Each week I will bring you a list of USAmerican players who have reached a new career-high ranking. This list is not exhaustive but covers at least all players in the Top 1000.

New ATP career-high rankings, November 17, 2014

Player name
New CHR
Last wk
*= pvs CHR
+  from last wk
Pvs CHR
If prior to last wk
Date achieved
If prior to last wk
Austin Krajicek
152
154*
+2


Jared Donaldson
257
261*
+4


Daniel Nguyen
328
229*
+1

11/3/2014
Marcos Giron
412
454
+7
419
8/25/2014
Evan Song
523
526
+3
525
11/3/2014
Deiton Baughman
794
799*
+5


Raymond Sarmiento
855
858
+3
857
10/27/2014
Jared Hiltzik
1050
1652
+602
1499
7/29/2013
Reilly Opelka
1242
1405
+163
1402
10/27/2014
Aron Hiltzik
1554
1568*
+14


Alex Rybakov
1836
n/a


















Big moves for Jared Hiltzik (thanks to success at the Champaign Challenger) and Reilly Opelka (Futures) but otherwise a quiet week.  Austin's going to finish the year among the Top 10 American men, which pretty much nobody predicted. And Rybakov is ranked (again, Futures). Nice job, gentlemen.

New WTA career-high rankings, November 17, 2014

Player name
New CHR
Last wk
*= previous   CHR
+  from last week
Pvs CHR
If prior to last wk
Date achieved
If prior to last wk
CiCi Bellis
255
257*
+2

10/27/2014
Caitlin Whoriskey
330
332*
+2


Rianna Valdes
776
777*
+1


Nicole Frenkel
844
849*
+5


Emma Higuchi
912
919
+7
915
11/3/2014
Natalie Suk
920
928
+8
926
11/3/2014
Daniella Roldan
942
948*
+6


Kristina Smith
998
1004*
+6


Terri Fleming
1013
1019*
+6


Caroline Dolehide
1070
1072*
+2


Jessica Ho
1099
1106*
+7


Tina Tehrani
1115
1123*
+8


Jessica Failla
1145
1152*
+7


Andie Daniell
1149
1156*
+7


Alexandra Valenstein
1182
1090*
+8


Dasha Ivanova
1182
1090*
+8