Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Where we stand: Week 1 of women's USTAPCAOWCC

A week has passed and the ten women profiled in my USTA Pro Circuit Australian Open Wild Card Challenge preview had, for the most part, solid weeks at the Macon $50K. Unfortunately for four of them (Vickery, Tatishvili, Boserup & Min) they ran into the buzzsaw known as Kateryna Bondarenko, who failed to drop a set against any of them in her run to the championship.

USTAPCAOWCC STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 1 - MACON
1. Grace Min (48)
2. Irina Falconi (29)
3 (T). Julia Boserup (15)
3 (T). Sanaz Marand (15)
3 (T). Ellie Halbauer (15)
6 (T). Anna Tatishvili (8)
6 (T). Melanie Oudin (8)
6 (T). Louisa Chirico (8)
6 (T). Asia Muhammad (8)
6 (T). Katerina Stewart (8)
11 (T). Samantha Crawford (1)
11 (T). Sachia Vickery (1)

Here's how each of the 10 woman I profiled fared - sorted by their new WTA ranking - and what they face in Week 2 in New Braunfels, TX.

Grace Min (#102 / +15)
What was accomplished in Macon: Lost F to Bondarenko 64 75. 58 points puts her at the top of the USTAPCAOWCC. Entry into the Top 100 now a matter of "when," not "if," for Min.
Points left to defend this fall: 0
New Braunfels seed & opponent: #2, faces Sanaz Marand
What's still at stake: Making herself ineligible for the USTAPCAOWCC

Anna Tatishvili (#117 / -4)
What was accomplished in Macon: Lost 2R to Bondarenko 62 63. That draw stunk. No two ways about it.
Points left to defend this fall: 120 - all coming off this week
New Braunfels seed & opponent: #1, faces Bernarda Pera (USA)
What's still at stake: How far will she drop before her triumphant return?

Irina Falconi (#132 / +0)
What was accomplished in Macon: Lost SF to Min 75 63. Defended the points she needed to defend.
Points left to defend this fall: 10 - balanced by 8 from her 17th-best result
New Braunfels seed & opponent: #6, faces Robin Anderson (WC/USA)
What's still at stake: Assuming Min gets direct entry into Melbourne, Falconi is in the lead for the USTAPCAOWCC.

Melanie Oudin (#159 / -16)
Withdrew from New Braunfels
What was accomplished in Macon: Lost 2R to Marand 64 63. Saved several match points against Melnikova only to unforced-error her way to a loss against Marand. Hurt?
Points left to defend this fall: 32
What's still at stake: She has semifinal points to defend this week from Toronto, so another dip is imminent.

Louisa Chirico (#186 / +4)
What was accomplished in Macon: Lost 2R to Boserup 62 62. But new career high ranking!
Points left to defend this fall: 19
New Braunfels seed & opponent: #9, will face Ilona Kremen (BLR)
What's still at stake: Quarterfinal points to defend from New Braunfels last year

Julia Boserup (194 / +6)
What was accomplished in Macon: Lost QF to Bondarenko 62 60. But
Points left to defend this fall: 28
New Braunfels opponent: Gabriela Ce (BRA)
What's still at stake: A win vs. Ce would keep her in the Top 200 for another week. A QF this week or next would go far in her quest for Aussie qualies.

Sachia Vickery (#202 / -8)
What was accomplished in Macon: Lost 1R to Bondarenko 63 75. So: nothing, really.
Points left to defend this fall: 0
New Braunfels opponent: Paula Cristina Goncalves
What's still at stake: Much better draw this week. Good chance to return to the Top 200. Could face Larcher de Brito in the second round - which is winnable.

Sanaz Marand (#242 / +7)
What was accomplished in Macon: Lost QF to Min 62 62
Points left to defend this fall: 36
New Braunfels opponent: Min
What's still at stake: Terrible draw for Marand. Min powered through Marand's looping shots time and time again on Friday.  Unless Min is tired or Sanaz comes up with a better strategy, her home-state stay (in singles at least) could be short.

Asia Muhammad (#264 / -16)
What was accomplished in Macon: Lost 2R to Halbauer. She had a tremendous win over Lucic-Baroni in the first round, but failed to serve out the match vs. Halbauer at 63 53. Pretty disasterous really.
Points left to defend this fall: 25
New Braunfels opponent: Qualifier
What's still at stake: Peace of mind. Plus an intriguing potential match with Min in the second round.

Samantha Crawford (#282 / -3)
What was accomplished in Macon: Lost 1R to Boserup 75 62
Points left to defend this fall: 11
New Braunfels opponent: Olivia Rogowska (6/AUS)
What's still at stake: She's safe in the Top 300, but would love to end the season with a bang.

Monday, October 27, 2014

USTAPCAOWCC: What's at stake for 11 men

And this week, the men.

A week after the women started their USTA Pro Circuit Australian Open Wild Card Challenge, the men begin theirs. Unlike the women's events, which like the Australian Open are on outdoor hard courts, the three men's tournaments are indoor: Charlottesville, Knoxville, and Champaign.

Several notable players who are not participating in the USTAPCAOWCC include Bradley Klahn, Austin Krajicek, Jarmere Jenkins, Bjorn Fratangelo, and (at least for Charlottesville) Jared Donaldson. Also not included in this overview are Charlottesville WC recipient Kozlov (who, for the record, is ranked #444 and has 4 points to defend this fall) or any of the guys playing qualies this week (Giron, King, King...).

Point distribution for the men's events (identical to the women's with the exception of 7 for second round finishes vs 8 for the women):

W: 80
F: 48
SF: 29
QF: 15
2R: 7
1R: 1

And here's what's at stake:

Tim Smyczek
Ranking: 97
C'ville seed & opponent: #2, to face Liam Broady (GBR)
Points to defend this fall: 80
What's at stake: Tim will likely need to win one of these three tournaments, or reach at least two finals (or a final and two semifinals), to stay in or near the Top 100 and get direct entry into the Australian Open.  Which would take him out of the running in the USTAPCAOWCC. If he doesn't defend anything, it's not the end of the world: he'll still likely be Top 120, with a seed (and possibly a Top 16 seed at that) in Melbourne.

Michael Russell
Ranking: 129
C'ville seed & opponent: #4, to face Marcelo Arevalo (ESA)
Points to defend this fall: 105
What's at stake: Russell won Charlottesville last year thanks to an epic match in the final against Peter Polansky.  Now, of course, those points are coming off.  And the 36-year-old has retired in his last two matches.  Russell is still fine for a Top 200 finish to the year, and entry into qualies in Melbourne - if his body can hold up.

Denis Kudla
Ranking: 133
C'ville seed & opponent: #3, to face Wayne Odesnik (USA)
Points to defend this fall: 0
What's at stake: It's been an uneven return from mono for the tenacious Virginian. A quarterfinal in Sacramento was followed by a rolled ankle at the end of a tight first round loss to Jordan Thompson in Tiburon.  Hopefully he's rested and ready for some wins (and to stockpile some points). The points to defend will start coming fast and furious in early 2015.

Rajeev Ram
Ranking: 140
C'ville seed & opponent: #7, to face Qualifier
Points to defend this fall: 9
What's at stake: Ram continues to carve out a nice career for himself, his serve and volley game good enough to stay in the singles Top 200 at age 30 while he excels in doubles.  A few match wins during this swing would position himself for a seed at the Australian Open qualies.  A tournament win and it might be time for him to set his sights on the Top 100 yet again.

Wayne Odesnik
Ranking: 170
C'ville opponent: Denis Kudla [3] (USA)
Points to defend this fall: 8
What's at stake: He won the USTAPCUSOWCC this summer when nobody wanted him to. Then during the California swing he had two retirements and a shock upset loss to Wolmarans, whom he led by a mile until choking away the second set.  This guy is definitely an enigma ... one who will likely to continue to be in the American tennis mix for the foreseeable future.

Chase Buchanan
Ranking: 184
C'ville opponent: Gianni Mina (FRA)
Points to defend this fall: 24
What's at stake: Buchanan has had some truly up and down results since busting into the Top 200 earlier this year.  His last match, a double bagel at the hands of John Millman in Tiburon, was, we hope, an anomaly.  But even if he can't win a match this month, he will finish 2014 with his best year-end ranking by far, and should be fine for direct entry into the Australian Open qualies.

Alex Kuznetsov
Ranking: 192
C'ville opponent: Robby Ginepri (USA)
Points to defend this fall: 15
What's at stake: This guy has won only one match since early August, and that was a 7-5 in the third grind against a newly returned Denis Kudla.  He hasn't reached a challenger quarterfinal since April. It's rough times for Mr. Kuznetsov, who may be at another career crossroads. It won't take more than a win or two to keep him in the Top 200 ... but even that's no guarantee.

Rhyne Williams
Ranking: 195
C'ville opponent: Frank Dancevic [8] (CAN)
Points to defend this fall: 33
What's at stake: A year that started so promisingly turned into a pretty big disappointment, but now could be his time to shine.  Because he has three zeros included in his points accumulation, even second-round appearances will help him stay in the Top 200.  Of course he'd like to start this swing by repeating his semifinal result from Charlottesville 2013.

Ryan Harrison
Ranking: 196
C'ville opponent: Mitchell Frank (USA)
Points to defend this fall: 7
What's at stake: Look, it's Ryan Harrison. Everything's always at stake. Points, pride, respect, self-respect, self-belief, racquets, our patience. And the narrative ... always the narrative. A victim of his own early success? Fool's gold for a nation longing for men's tennis heroes? Luckless in draws? Coddled by enablers? Needs to grow up oh wait he's 22 it's too late to grow up? Whatever your take, there's perhaps nobody in the USTAPCAOWCC who could use a magical run more than this guy. But even if he doesn't, he won't fall far. Yet.

Robby Ginepri
Ranking: 214
C'ville opponent: Alex Kuznetsov (USA)
Points to defend this fall: 0
What's at stake: Ginepri, 32, is on a four-match losing streak. His physical well-being, and longevity in professional tennis, is an object of constant speculation. He clearly still has the desire to be out there, and the shots, and plenty of his chronological peers are taking up what seems like permanent residence in the Top 100. So why not Robby? This swing could tell us a lot about what's realistic to expect moving forward.

Tennys Sandgren
Ranking: 342
C'ville opponent: James McGee (IRL)
Points to defend this fall: 117 (of 130 total)
What's at stake: Staying in the Top 800. Wow.

That injury took a hell of a lot of wind out of Sandgren's sails. And he's had some exasperatingly close defeats since his return. And now the final bill is coming due. Second round Charlottesville, semifinal Knoxville, championship in Champaign. He'll still have his protected ranking to be able to play some events in January, including qualies for the Australian Open. But yeah - he just needs points any way he can get them these days.  He, by far, has the most at stake this month.


Do you have a pick to win the USTAPCAOWCC? Let us know in comments!

New USA Career-High Rankings, October 27, 2014

Each week I will bring you a list of USAmerican players who have reached a new career-high ranking. This list is not exhaustive but covers at least all players in the Top 1000.

New WTA career-high rankings, October 27, 2014

Player name
New CHR
Last wk
*= previous   CHR
+  from last week
Pvs CHR
If prior to last wk
Date achieved
If prior to last wk
Grace Min
102
117
+15
105
8/8/2014
Louisa Chirico
186
190*
+4


Sanaz Marand
242
249*
+7


CiCi Bellis
257
311*
+54


Caitlin Whoriskey
364
385
+21
384
10/13/2014
Katerina Stewart
390
419*
+29


Nadja Gilchrist
595
636*
+41


Ellie Halbauer
625
784
+159
651
9/22/2014
Julia Elbaba
676
681*
+5


Michaela Gordon
713
751*
+38


Rianna Valdes
790
805*
+15


Kelly Chen
858
860*
+2

10/13/2014
Emma Higuchi
926
928*
+2


Natalie Suk
935
937*
+2


Alexandra Morozova
985
1012*
+27


Caroline Dolehide
1089**
1089*
n/a


Jessica Ho
1120
1123*
+3


Kristina Smith
1136
1139
+3
1137
10/13/2014
Tina Tehrani
1136
1139
+3
1137
10/13/2014
Andie Daniell
1167
1203
+36
1202
10/13/2014
Nicole Frenkel
1201
1203
+2


Mercedes Hammond
1254
n/a
n/a































Big weeks for several Top-500 women.  The biggest jump among them was from Bellis, whose second consecutive South Carolina $25K win last week makes her the 26th-ranked American, despite having only 7 tournaments to her name. Her schedule over the next 6 months will be fascinating to watch, as she edges closer to direct entry into qualifying draws for majors.

Min would desperately love a Top 100 breakthrough this year but she may have to earn it - she's 24 points behind #100, whereas the #108 player is only 8 points behind her.  Whoriskey's quarterfinal in Saguenay was a huge boost for the ex-Vol, who has nearly nothing to defend until May.  Stewart recorded a first-round win over Mayo Hibi in Macon.

Outside the Top 500, Halbauer made her move with a surprising run to the quarters in Macon, while Gilchrist qualified for the $50K in Saguenay.

Finally, apologies to Caroline Dolehide, who I should have included last week on the New Career High list.  This week she stayed at #1089 so I'm including her, rather than going back to edit last week's chart.  Congrats, Caroline!

New ATP career-high rankings, October 27, 2014

Player name
New CHR
Last wk
*= pvs CHR
+  from last wk
Pvs CHR
If prior to last wk
Date achieved
If prior to last wk
Jack Sock
44
47*
+3


Connor Smith
363
372*
+9


Dennis Novikov
411
417*
+6


Mitchell Frank
503
521
+18
508
8/18/2014
Peter Kobelt
555
562*
+7


Alexander Sarkissian
599
602*
+3


Collin Altamirano
733
741
+8
740
10/13/2014
Raymond Sarmiento
857
860*
+3


Spencer Papa
858
862*
+4


Michael Mmoh
1002
1433
+431
1406
4/14/2014
Justin Shane
1087
1093*
+6


Michael Grant
1091
1132*
+41

10/13/2014
Hunter Harrington
1171
1176*
+5


Nathan Pasha
1171
1176*
+5


Farzin Danny Amiri
1218
1221
+3
1220
10/13/2014
Reilly Opekla
1402
1410*
+8


Gage Brymer
1527
1533*
+6


Haig Schneiderman
1527
1533*
+6
Clay Thompson
1604
1609*
+5


Aron Hiltzik
1606
1611*
+5




























Only 20 this week - and only 3 in the Top 500.   At the top is #jacksock, who benefited from others dropping below him.  Regardless of what happens the rest of the fall, he will be on nearly everyone's "players to watch in 2015" lists.

But the big story is Michael Mmoh, whose run to the Mansfield semis a week ago brought him 8 big points, and on the verge of the Top 1000.  Of course, that was only a teaser for this past week, when he won the Brownsville $15K event, saving match points in the process. We will be looking at another Top 700 player in seven days' time.  Can you feel the excitement?!?