My day at the AC Nielson/Winnetka Challenger (QF edition)

I love live tennis. Pro, college, amateur ... Honestly, it could be two randos on public courts who've never taken a lesson in their lives batting at the ball and I will still find the back and forth endlessly fascinating. While televised tennis has its advantages (especially when there's good camera work, commentary, and production) I definitely prefer the unmediated version.

Today I took my third annual trip up to Winnetka, IL for the Nielsen Pro Tennis Championship. There I saw some good tennis and then some great tennis, and had an overall terrific time.  I suppose it helped that in each match I saw, I had a definite rooting interest (American vs non-American)... 

First up was some doubles. I got there in time too see most of Jarmere Jenkins & Mitchell Krueger vs. Luke Saville & Michael Venus. Venus, of New Zealand, is the highest-ranked doubles player of the foursome at #68 and it showed. He served well, made very few mistakes, and communicated well with his young Australian partner. It was nice seeing both Jarmere and Krueger in person for the first time. Mitchell played pretty solid overall (you can see why he's risen over 200 spots in the past two months) while Jarmere had a number of missed returns and unforced errors, with some flashes of the brilliance that won him so much acclaim in college.

Venus stands with Luke looking on

Saville serving with Venus in the forecourt
 

Jarmere Jenkins while his partner Krueger is serving.

(L. to R.: Jarmere Jenkins, Mitchell Krueger, Luke Saville, Michael Venus)

The Oceanians were just a bit better on this day, winning 63 62.

After that I settled in to watch the start of Mackenzie McDonald vs. Adrien Bossel. Mackie, of course, is a bit of a legend due to his three-set wins in Cincinnati qualies last year over Nicolas Mahut & Steve Johnson. He earned his way into this tournament via three qualies matches, and then shocked Sam Groth in the first round.

I'd seen Bossel (pronouned "Basel" like the city in the country from whence he comes) before at Winnetka, and was not particularly impressed. It could be that it just wasn't his day back in 2012 - I believe it was awful hot that day - but still, I knew Mackie, a UCLA rising sophomore, had a shot. And he took it. With a composed, mature performance, he overcame his opponent's blazing backhands and reached a challenger semi for the first time, 63 64. His grin after the handshake was, frankly, precious. Sorry I didn't capture it!

McDonald preparing to return, with the ballgirl/scoreboard operator looking on

Bossel not at all happy with a time violation warning he got while toweling off on return. Sent for the tournament director

Bossel serving down a set & 0-30.

He's giddy on the inside. A cool Mackenzie is into the semis!

Then I got the chance to meet Patrick, a young man with a great head for tennis and five fewer wisdom teeth than he had a few days prior. We watched Tim Smyczek warm up with Aron Hiltzik (rising University of Illinois freshman, also works with Billy Heiser) for his evening match, and Patrick pointed out Thanasi Kokkinakis in the background, hitting with Saville. If only I'd known then about Patrick's dark secret (to be revealed in a subsequent post)....

Tim Smyczek warming up with Aron Hiltzik

Next came Austin Krajicek and Farrukh Dustov. I had seen Krajicek play a few times in person and while he still is a bit rough, he has improved a great deal. A year ago he was #290 in singles and #120 in doubles. Today he's cut those to #212 (with a career high of #201 in May) and #80. He's been steady, but not spectacular. You feel like he just needs that one breakthrough event.

Unfortunately, that did not come this week. Facing the 28-year-old Uzbek power merchant, Austin nonetheless won the first set and was up a break in each of the two final sets. But Dustov, whom I'd never watched, played the big points better. Offense, defense, defense-to-offense, and particularly the serve, which was sturdy and at times spectacular. Dustov won 57 73 75. There was no shame in Austin losing that match. A lot of Top 100 guys also would have.

Krajicek has about 56 points to defend this month but after that he's good through October. Hopefully he can get that much-deserved breakthrough and make another run at the top 200.

Austin preparing to return a rocket

Farrukh ready to blast a FEARhand

A cantankerous man in a wheelchair was escorted from the premises, but not before calling these officers "faggots." He continued "I don't know what you are, I assume you're straight, like I am." He was seemingly upset that he wasn't allowed in during a non-changeover time, and then that his view was partially blocked. It was unclear to me whether the tournament offered appropriate seating for those in wheelchairs. 

So I thought that was basically the end of that. Patrick went on his merry way and I stuck around to see if anyone was practicing. Imagine my surprise to see THE TENNYS SANDGREN on court. Austin, who was passing by, told me he was hitting with Tom Fawcett, a local kid who will be attending Stanford in the fall. I told Patrick and he returned to watch them with me. It was great to see him out there, his movement looked solid, and his forehands were as blistering as ever.

When he was done, he came over and chatted with the two of us about all sorts of things - tennis fandom, his upcoming schedule (US Open qualies and fall challengers), that epic match against Steve Johnson in the USTAAOWCPO, racquet abuse (he says he never throws it: "that's your baby"), Chipotle, and much more. Definitely the highlight of my day. Great guy. Cannot WAIT to see him back competing.

Fawcett in white, Tennys in gray, about to crush the inside-out.

All in all, a fun day. I was a bit wary about what I'd be able to watch, from a USA tennis perspective, when the draws came out. But McDonald and Krajicek, by making it to the quarters, gave me lots to root (loudly) for. I headed back to Chicago instead of staying for the night match. There I to watch Denis Kudla straight-set Smyczek (unfortunately for Tim's immediate Top 100 return prospects) and then the replay of Redlicki/McDonald beating the top-seeded Ratiwatana twins. I'll have more on Redlicki in a subsequent post. For now all I'll say is: boy can ball.

Who are these boys?

It was a collectively disappointing result at the 2014 French Open for US boys.  After going 7-0 in the first round - facing no seeds - they went 2-5 in the second round with top-seed Francis Tiafoe losing in three sets to German Jan Choinski. Then Michael Mmoh lost to eventual finalist, Spaniard Javier Munar Clar, in the 3rd round and Stefan Kozlov lost to the eventual champion, Russian Andrey Rublev, in three in the QFs and that was it.

Then last week in Roehampton, another collectively disappointing week as the 3 seeds (Tiafoe, Kozlov, Mmoh) all lost to unseeded player and only Taylor Harry Fritz reached the 3rd round. He eventually lost in three to eventual champ Rublev in the semis.

So it was a big question how the group of 9 US boys would perform at Wimbledon.

The answer, thus far, is a resounding "impressively."

Through two rounds, US boys are 14-2 with the only losses by Henrik Wiersholm (in 3 to Andrey "Eventual Champion?" Rublev) and Dennis Uspensky (in 2 to Peruvian lucky loser Pedro Iamachkine). So of the 16 boys left in singles 7 (43.75%) are American. Regardless of what happens from here that's strong stuff.

My prediction is that not all seven will advance to the quarterfinals. For one, they're facing some tough, tough players tomorrow. For another, two of them face each other.

So who are these boys? Well, frankly I am NOT the best source. I have only seen a few of them play and haven't met or interviewed any of them. There are far better resources for learning about juniors - in particular Colette Lewis at Zoo Tennis. Nonetheless, I have compiled this quick overview based on available resources for those interested and also to learn stuff myself.  So here they are, the mighty seven:

Francis Tiafoe [7]

Born: January 20, 1998 (16)  Residence: College Park, MD (JTCC)

Junior rank: 8  Pro rank: 1138

Notable results: W Orange Bowl

Wins: Martin Blasko (SVK) 64 36 63; Yunseong Chung (KOR) 76(4) 63

Next round: Noah Rubin (USA)

My guess (totally a guess): Winner of Noah/Francis could get Rublev. On grass, hopefully a chance to snatch that "eventual champion" title away from the Russian.

Stefan Kozlov [6]

Born: February 1, 1998 (16) Residence: Pembroke Pines, FL (Kozlov Tennis Academy/edited to add USTA)

Junior rank: 6  Pro rank: 851

Notable results: F Australian Open (2014)

Wins: Rafael Matos (BRA) 64 61; Pedro Martinez Portero (ESP) 60 62

Next round: Naoki Nakagawa (JPN)

My guess (totally a guess): Nakagawa hasn't had much success on grass. I see Stefan getting to the semis where a HUGE test likely awaits with Hyeon Chung. Gonna predict Chung takes it.

Michael Mmoh [11]

Born: January 10, 1998 (16) Residence: Temple Hills, MD (trains IMG Academy)

Junior rank: 12  Pro rank: 1442

Notable results: W Osaka (2013), Montreal Grade 2 (2013)

Wins: Choinski (GER) 67(7) 63 61; Jan Zielinski (POL) 63 62

Next round: Johan Sebastian Tatlot (FRA/8)

My guess (totally a guess): Mmoh is 0-3 vs Tatlot - all last year, all on clay. The Frenchman got to the final of Roehampton last week. Gotta give him the edge but would be fun to see Michael win!

Taylor Harry Fritz [Q]

Born: October 28, 1997 (16)  Residence: Rancho Santa Fe, CA

Junior rank: 46  Pro rank: 1250

Notable results: SF Roehampton, F Pan American (2013)

Wins: Julian Cash (GBR) 64 62; Marcelo Zormann (BRA/14) 64 76(3)

Next round: Francisco Bahamonde (ARG)

My guess (totally a guess): Taylor has had some strong grass results. He claims he's comfortable on the stuff. His draw has opened up. I wouldn't be surprised to see him into his second straight grass semi.

Noah Rubin

Born: February 21, 1996 (18) Residence: New York, NY (John McEnroe Tennis Academy)

Junior rank: 503  Pro rank: 539

Notable results: W Coffee Bowl Costa Rica (2012); F in 3 Futures ESP F10, FRA F6, USA F20 (2013)

Wins: Jamie Malik (GBR) 62 64; Kamil Majchrzak (POL) 63 75

Next round: Francis Tiafoe (USA/7)

My guess (totally a guess): Rubin was #6 in the world before deciding to focus on pro events. Tiafoe has had a ton of press but uneven results since rising to #2 in the world.

Alex Rybakov

Born: January 27, 1997 (17)  Residence: Coral Springs, FL (Rybakov Tennis Academy)

Junior rank: 27  Pro rank: n/a

Notable results: SF Milan (2014 - l. Rublev); SF Ecuador Grade 1 (2014); W Philadelphia Grade 4 (2013 - on grass)

Wins: Rhett Purcell (GBR) 76(5) 63 97; Petros Chrysochos (CYP) 64 63

Next round: Filippo Baldi (ITA)

My guess (totally a guess): Will say it ends here. 

Logan Smith

Born: (17)  Residence: Carlsbad, CA (edited to add Dent Tennis Academy)

Junior rank: 54  Pro rank: n/a

Notable results: F Copa Barranquilla (Grade 1)

Wins: Marc Polmans (AUS) 75 62; Petar Conkic (SRB) 76(0) 63

Next round: Hyeon Chung (KOR/2)

My guess (totally a guess): Hard to see this kid beating the defending Wimbledon finalist. But you never know!!

Thanks to @ARhyneMoment for a few edits - any other additions/corrections please let me know!

New USA Career-High Rankings, June 23, 2014

Each week I will endeavor to bring you a list of USAmerican players who have reached a new career-high ranking. This list is not exhaustive but will cover most players in the Top 1000. 

New WTA Career-High Rankings - June 23, 2014 (previous high & date achieved in parentheses)
Madison Keys -- 30 (36 - 10/14/2013)
CoCo Vandeweghe -- 51 (69 - 7/16/2012)
Victoria Duval -- 114 (115 - 5/26/2014)
Taylor Townsend -- 147 (148 - 6/16/2014)
Nicole Gibbs -- 150 (152 - 6/16/2014)
Louisa Chirico -- 268 (302 - 2/3/2014)

Career performances by Keys and Vandeweghe in Eastbourne and s-Hertogenbosch, respectively, are rewarded by big ranking jumps. Chirico was similarly rewarded for her $25K win a week ago in Italy, and will move up again after Wimbledon thanks to her $25K final this week.  Duval and Gibbs were playing Wimbledon qualies (which won't show up until after the full fortnight is completed). They and Townsend moved up because a couple of others dropped down.  Unusual not to see any* lower-ranked women with new CHRs but that's mostly because of a pause in USTA Pro Circuit events, which started to be rectified this week (in which we saw four Bethany Beach $10K semifinalists from the USA) and will show up in the post-Wimbledon rankings.

New ATP Career-High Rankings - June 23, 2014 (previous high & date achieved in parentheses)
Mitchell Krueger -- 330 (349 - 6/16/2014)
Evan King -- 432 (436 - 6/16/2014)
Noah Rubin -- 539 (542 - 6/16/2014)
Devin McCarthy -- 696 (738 6/16/2014)
Peter Kobelt -- 873 (1126 6/16/2014)

Conversely, there are no US men above 300 who achieved career highs. Three guys who did, though, had nice big jumps thanks to their work last week in Futures events in Israel (Kobelt & McCarthy) and Italy (Krueger). Kobelt's jump comes a week after his jump from #1947 - so he's shaved over 1,000 spots off his ranking and will go higher after Wimbledon. Krueger, meanwhile, has set a new CHR each of the last four rankings, improving from #405. Rubin has done the same, improving from #591.

As mentioned, the next rankings for both men & women will come after Wimbledon (as well as the Winnetka Challenger and quite a few ITFs) so we will likely see a quite a few names on the list.

*There may be some among women below ~750 whom I don't track. If you know of any, please share!

The official "On the Rise (a tennis blog)" Wimbledon 2014 ATP preview post!

See part 1 of this Wimbledon preview featuring the American women.

Quick refresher: the draw rating scale is Love (easiest) to 6 (toughest); I provide what I see as best case & more likely scenarios (i.e., my prediction) for each player; and I give FUN FACTS and my prediction of how many matches each sex will win.

Part 2: Dudeland

1. John Isner (9)
Rank: 11
First-round opponent: Handsome Dan Smethurst (GBR)
Best result: 2R (2010, 2011, 2013)
Draw rating: 2

Draw analysis: I had the pleasure of watching Smethurst up close last fall in Champaign, indoors. I was surprised to see he was ranked as low as he was (485) given his big game. Well he reached the semis and since then he's risen to a new career high ranking (240 - he's now at 243) and will likely go higher. He's got an aggressive game but it seems pretty clear that grass isn't his natural milieu - he's 0-5 in his pro career at all levels. (He did rout Dimitrov on the stuff as a junior though!) It's not John's either but one would think he gets through in 3-4 sets with 2-3 tiebreaks.

John's second round opponent, likely Nieminen, is 0-4 against the 'merican, and grass is his worst surface. The Finn does have a grass win, however, over Isner's potential third-round opponent, Feliciano Lopez. If Feli gets there - he's played a lot of tennis the last two weeks and could face a tough second round match vs. Falla. Call me crazy but I think Isner can get through to the 4th round, where he'd have a great chance against Wawrinka/Tursunov/Istomin/Lu. Could this really be Isner's second career QF? Ummmmm maybe.

Best case scenario: Yep, that QF spot looms large. More likely scenario: John still has his best Wimbledon ever, defends his seed, but runs out of juice in the 4th Round.

Fun fact: On day 2 of Isner's three-day epic vs Mahut in 2010, USA played and won its must-win match vs ALG to advance to the knock-out round of World Cup, where they summarily lost to GHA.

2. Steve Johnson
Rank: 68
First-round opponent: Roberto Bautista Agut (27/ESP)
Best result: 1R (2013)
Draw rating: 5

Draw analysis: This match between the two top candidates for Most Improved Player is a rough one for Stevie. He's already lost twice to the Spaniard in back-to-back first round matches in Indian Wells and Miami, and I just think RBA is the more complete player right now. Note crap like this:

Any advantage StevieJ might have with grass familiarity was erased as RBA managed to win his first tour title on the dang surface.  Were Steve to pull the big upset, he'd have a nice opportunity in Round 2 vs Kamke/Hernych. But then Murray would come up in the 3rd. (I'd actually be very worried about RBA were I a Backer of the Brits.)

Best case scenario: RBA is hungover from his celebrations and Steve's college greatness kicks in and he steals the first match, and gets his time on Centre vs Murray.  More likely scenario: A disappointing 1st round exit sends Steve back to the States, ready for a monster summer.

Fun fact: Steve Johnson's mom is a math professor. That basically rocks.

3. Donald Young
Rank: 69
First-round opponent: Benjamin Becker (GER)
Best result: 1R (2008, 2011, 2012)
Draw rating: 3

Draw analysis: You will first notice that Donald Young has never was a match at The Wimbledons, including qualies. In fact, one of the nadirs of his many-nadired career came in the first round of qualies last year when he failed to win a set off Agustin Velotti, the only time the Argentine has won so much as 6 games in a match on grass.  So that right there is a problem. Then again, Young was thought to be hapless on clay and then he won two matches and nearly a third at Roland Garros. And he did so be being more aggressive, which should pay off on grass. (Also he did snag a Junior Wimbledon championship waaaaaayyyyy back in the olden days of 2007.)

As for Becker - he likes the grass. Two of his three career finals have come at s-Hertogenbosch including this week's near miss vs RBA and his lone title in 2009. He's actually played way more ATP Tour & Challengers matches on grass than he has on clay (64-40) and he has 42 grass wins vs 8 on clay. But he's never gotten to the 3rd Round at Wimbledon or any major other than the fateful End of Agassi 2006 US Open. And he's NEVER won a fifth set. Bottom line - the longer the match goes, the better for Young. After that it's Groth/Dolgopolov (neither of whom Donald has played) then Dimitrov/Thiem.

Best case scenario: The new-new Donald Young comes out aggressive and firing, and reaches his third consecutive 3rd Round of a major. More likely scenario: Becker proves just a bit more savvy on the green, overcomes Donald in the 1st Round.

Fun fact: Young is one of 9 former Wimbledon Junior titlists in the singles draw. The others are Federer, Jürgen Melzer, Mahut, Monfils, Chardy, Dimitrov, Andrey Kuznetsov, and Luke Saville.

4. Bradley Klahn
Rank: 73
First-round opponent: Sam Querrey (USA)
Best result: 1QR (2013)
Draw rating: 4

Draw analysis: Bradley seems to have a bit of the Icarus in him these days. He did so well in late-season 2013 and early-season 2014 challengers and was poised to enter the Top 50. But his results at the ATP Tour level this year have been woeful and he missed several weeks for an undisclosed reason. Moreover his career grass record is 0-5 between qualies, main draws, and challengers. And now he'll have to face a confident Sam Querrey. And even if he does sneak a win, next would be Tsonga or Melzer. I'm guessing Klahn will be back in the US pretty dern quick getting ready to defend his Winnetka Challenger finalist points.

Best case scenario: Brad gets a flat Sammy and wins his Wimbledon debut. More likely scenario: 1st Round and Homeward Bound.

Fun fact: By far the best way to say Klahn is like Capt. Kirk says KAHN! in Star Trek 2. Try it out if you haven't:

5. Jack Sock
Rank: 75
First-round opponent: Pierre-Hugues Herbert (FRA)
Best result: 1QR (2013)
Draw rating: 3

Draw analysis: Another guy making his Wimbledon main draw debut, #jacksock warmed up for this major by playing oodles of matches at The Boodles.  He performed well, winning "matches" over Isner and Thiem, losing to Anderson and Janowicz. He's starting to look comfortable on the surface. PHH meanwhile has a great game for grass: he's comfortable serving & volleying and has wins this grass season over said Janowicz and then solid players Coric, Kosakowski, and Mecir in Wimbledon qualies. He's a tricky draw but I think #jacksock can win in PHH's main draw debut.

Next would be Raonic, who has a losing record on grass, and whom #jacksock has always played tough. Then a winnable 3rd vs Garcia-Lopez/Struff/Kubot or a rematch from RG vs Lajovic.  4th round would be Nishikori/Kohlschreiber. I have said before that I think the sky's the limit for #jacksock. Why not start this year at this wacky little tournament we like to call Wimbledon?

Best case scenario: #jacksock gets his breakthrough and announces his arrival with a 4th round appearance. More likely scenario: #jacksock gets bounced by a just-better-enough Milos Raonic in the 2nd round.

Fun fact: #jacksock is taller than me. Here's proof:

6. Sam Querrey
Rank: 77
First-round opponent: Bradley Klahn (USA)
Best result: 4R (2010)
Draw rating: 3

Draw analysis: See Klahn, above. Assuming he wins that, he could be competitive vs Melzer (against whom Sam has a 2-1 H2H) or even Tsonga (in poor current form).  Then would come Youzhny/Ward/Wang/A-Gon.  Then Djokovic.

Best case scenario: A truly motivated Querrey shows up and makes that 4th round Djokovic match, he returns to the Top 50 and all of a sudden Sam is the cat's meow. More likely scenario: Sam is 2 and done - a 2nd round loss to Jo or Jürgen.

Fun fact: All the guys who beat Sam in Junior Grand Slams are currently in the Top 100 (Murray, Cilic, Leonardo Mayer & Lukas Lacko). Only one guy he beat at a Junior Slam is currently anywhere near the Top 100 (Cilic, 2004 US Open, 2nd Round, in a BUSTER).

7. Michael Russell
Rank: 94
First-round opponent: Julian Reister (GER)
Best result: 2R (2010, 2012)
Draw rating: 3

Draw analysis: Julian Reister has the ability to win a set without dropping a point. He also has the ability not to capitalize on that by, say, winning a tour-level match in the past 12 months. His last victory at this level was, in fact, over Lukas Rosol (DO YOU?!) at our very own Wimbledon. On grass this year, he got a retirement out of Philipp Petzschner and then lost 1 & 1 to Joao Sousa and that's it. So it's very tempting to pick Iron Mike here. Problem is, Iron Mike hasn't been so (irony alert!) Iron-y recently.  Since making the semis in Memphis he's been struggling to win sets and had to retire down 0-3 to Cox at Eastbourne.  This one is a real possible suckfest (warning: NSFW).

My guarantee* to you: the winner will lose the next round to Istomin or Tursunov.

Best case scenario: Russell's body holds up better than Reister's mind. A nice payday for the Texan. More likely scenario: Reister gets his third career Wimbledon win. Mike exits 1st round at his last(?) Wimbledon.

Fun fact: In case you missed it last year, this is a really good read from Miguel Morales (@miguelreymorles) about the finances of a mid-level tennis player like Mike. I learned a lot.

8. Denis Kudla
Rank: 135
First-round opponent: Marsel Ilhan (TUR)
Best result: 2R (2013)
Draw rating: 4

Draw analysis: This is a nice opportunity against a fellow qualifier. Ilhan has had a decent year, including winning the Kazan Challenger in March, but he has yet to win a match on the tour level in 2014. Also Denis doesn't have to worry being tired after staying up to watch USA/POR tonight since his first match is Tuesday.  A win vs. Ilhan would mean Nishikori/De Schepper which probably means Nishikori which probably means no more Wimbledon for Denis. Even a De Schepper match would be tough. 3rd Round is Kohlschreiber but I don't see that happening.

Best case scenario: USA beats POR, Denis beats Ilhan in straight sets, and puts on a valiant display vs Kei but goes down in 5. More likely scenario: Still think Denis will beat Ilhan, but Kei is likely to end up putting a beatdown on the guy. Pretty rough draw there.

Fun fact: Denis is 9-2 at Wimbledon + Roehampton, 15-15 on grass everywhere else.

9. Ryan Harrison
Rank: 68
First-round opponent: Grigor Dimitrov (11/BUL)
Best result: 2R (2011, 2012)
Draw rating: 6

Draw analysis: I just want to take a moment to congratulate Harry on an excellent week of qualifying - single and doubles! - particularly coming back from a set & a break down to talented Taro Daniel in the first round and not dropping a set after that. He helped rescue an otherwise dismal European trip and gave us hope that perhaps his new partnership with Jan-Michael Gambill is exactly what he needs. I remain hopeful that Harry can address his deficiencies and get back to that Top 50. He's a really appealing player when on.

Best case scenario: What? I didn't analyze his 2014 draw? How odd. More likely scenario: Honestly, I meant to. Must've just run out of time.

Fun fact: I just can't.

10. Alex Kuznetsov
Rank: 149
First-round opponent: Fabio Fognini (16/ITA)
Best result: 1R (2013)
Draw rating: 3

Draw analysis: It was a surprise for me to see Alex qualify, even though he did so last year. Grass doesn't seem to suit his game as much as some other guys but here we are. And let's face it: FabFogs is beatable. He lost all four of his exo matches at The Boodles and generally hasn't been at his best at Wimbledon (except in 2010 when he beat the beatable Verdasco & Russell on his way to losing to Benneteau in the 3rd Round. A win over FabFogs would give Alex a great opportunity vs @GoldenSetTim or Gabashvili. Then would likely come Anderson.

Best case scenario: The bad version of Fabio turns up and Alex wins by default, and then golden sets @GoldenSetTim. More likely scenario: Fognini plays to his potential and hands Alex a 1st round exit.

Fun fact: The last main draw ATP match Kuznetsov won off US soil was in 2007 - at Queen's Club!

........

Predicted total number of matches won: 6

Basically, too much has to go right for the USA to approach the 9 wins we got at Roland Garros. But I think we can do better than last year's 5 wins. Unfortunately I can already hear the chatter: another horrible major for US men. US men suck. Blah blah blah. It's easy for me to say from my comfy chair but I think a year from now we will be seeing significantly better draws and results. In fact, I guarantee** double-digit wins for the men at Wimbledon 2015.

*Not actually a guarantee.
**Definitely not an actual guarantee.

The official "On the Rise (a tennis blog)" Wimbledon 2014 WTA preview post!

This grass. These courts. This ... Wimbledon! I have a lot to cover, so I'm going to dispense with the purple prose introduction and get right down to it.

This here is my first ever Preview, for any tournament. Today and tomorrow I will rate the draws of all 23* USAmericans on a scale of Love (easiest) to 6 (toughest), and provide what I see as best case scenarios for each (understanding that with the exception of Serena, the worst case scenario would be a first-round loss) as well as what I think is the more likely scenario (that is, my prediction).  Also there are fun facts for each! "Fun."

Finally, I will venture guesses at the total number of matches I think the each sex will win. Please come back after I fail miserably at my guesses to mock me! It's what I'm here for.

Okay. Here we go:

The Women of the United States of America

1. Serena Williams (1)
Rank: 1
First-round opponent: Anna Tatishvili (USA)
Best result: Champion (2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2012)
Draw rating: 1

Draw analysis: Serena Williams won't be losing to Anna Tatishvili. After that, everything is up to Serena. I feel like she's the heavy favorite to win this tournament. She's already had her "shock" loss at a major, and given her early exit last year I see her as being focused and motivated from ball one. Still, her health will likely be a concern for the rest of her career, and hell, Sharapova has to win ONE more time before one of them retires, right? Right? They could meet in the Quarters.

I predict her first tough match will be in the Round of 16 vs Petkovic - that could be a fun one actually.  Should she reach the semis, I'm pretty sure everyone would want to see an Ivanovic rematch. Except maybe Ivanovic's ever-nervous fans, of course.

Best case scenario: Hoisting her SIXTH Venus Rosewater Dish (her 18th major overall) and then dancing at the Champions Ball with Grigor Dimitrov.  More likely scenario: she dances with Rafa, Roger, Andy, or Novak.

Fun fact: Here's the list of Serena's conquerors at Wimbledon: Venus, Justine, Sharapova, Capriati, Bartoli, Lisicki, Virginia Ruano Pascual (first appearance), and .... Jill Craybas!

2. Sloane Stephens (18)
Rank: #18
First-round opponent: Maria Kirilenko (RUS)
Best result: QF (2013)
Draw rating: 2

Draw analysis: It's bound to come crashing down at some point - Sloane's run of six consecutive major 4th round appearances. I just don't think it will happen this month? A mentally fragile enigma who has yet to put it all together, my favorite player has frankly lucked out a bit with her draws at majors. Here, with Kirilenko's injuries, and Konta & Peng eminently beatable, most will pencil her into the 3rd round. There she could end up the lower seed vs. Pennetta, but my hunch is that she runs into Lauren Davis. Davis hits a nice ball, and took pre-Top 20 Sloane to 7-5 in the 3rd in Hobart last year. But I'd still call call Sloane the favorite there. At which point I see her losing to Kvitova or Venus. Or Li or Woz in the quarters.

Still, fair warning: it's absolutely possible than an in-form and inspired MaKiri plays like it's 2013 and sends Our Sloane back to the USA, and out of the top 20 with a LOT to think about.

Best case scenario: We have a repeat of the insanity of last year, where top players go down to nobodies and Sloane beats Kirilenko/Konta/Cepelova/Babos/Doi to reach the final and lose to Serena. More likely scenario: another 4th round for Slam Stephens.

Fun fact: Stephens and Babos won the 2010 Junior Wimbledon doubles title over Elina Svitolina & Irina Khromacheva!

3. Venus Williams (30)
Rank: #30
First-round opponent: Venus Williams Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor (ESP)
Best result: Champion (2000, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008)
Draw rating: 3

Draw analysis: The newly minted 34-year-old Venus may not see success at another major but then again, she may. She has defied expectations of her supporters and her detractors, for better and for worse, for two decades now. And honestly her draw is pretty fair. MTTF has had a horrid year with the exception of a win over Kerber in Indian Wells OH AND A TITLE in Marrakech (proving conclusively that winning a title is not the mark by which we should be measuring players). Then Nara or Friedsam. Then a blockbuster vs. Kvitova who has a questionable hammy and a more questionable brain.  It stays tough after that (Stephens/Pennetta ... Li/Wozniacki) but Peak Venus can win those. So many great champions seem to manage that one last send-off - Martina at Wimbledon 1990; Pete at the 2002 US Open. Can Venus have hers six years after her last major victory?

I really don't think so :(

Best case scenario: Wins it all. Continues her career for another 5 years and loves every second of it. More likely scenario: Falls to P3tra in 3 in a 3rd round EPIC.

Fun fact: Venus' first-round opponent wasn't born the first time Williams was featured in Sports Illustrated. (Best line: "Serena is also a promising player.")

4. Alison Riske
Rank: #44
First-round opponent: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (26/RUS)
Best result: 3R (2013)
Draw rating: 5

Draw Analysis: Alison's run as the #4-ranked USAmerican proved short-lived as she ran into twin buzzsaws of bad draws and a Madison Keys premier title.  It's tough to get a read on her grass-court form: she lost early in tight matches vs. Sloane Stephens and Angelique Kerber. It's easy to see her going out to Pavs, who took out Aga in the first round this week. Then again, Pavs has not had great success at Wimbly, and Allie took care of her easily in Hobart in January.  But then likely comes Giorgi. Then Sharapova. Then possibly Kerber again. Then Serena.

Best case scenario: Beats Pavs, has Bacsinszky take out Sharapova, beats Bacsinszky, somehow advances to the quarters and proves herself as a true Grass Master. More likely scenario: 3rd round.

Fun fact: This time last year, Riske went into Wimbledon ranked #126 - and that was AFTER her amazing run through the qualies into the Birmingham semis!

5. Madison Keys
Rank: #47
First-round opponent: Monica Puig (PUR)
Best result: 3R (2013)
Draw rating: 3

Draw analysis: Maddy was primed to win her first title last month in Strasbourg when she was unceremoniously eliminated by ol' Monica Puig, against whom Keys is now 0-2. "But that was clay," you say. Yes but Pica got to the 4th round of Wimbledon last year (though against less-than-world-beating competition). More importantly, it's easy to see Madison a bit emotionally spent after her first-ever final AND title today. After Puig would be Koukalova/Townsend, then Jankovic/Kanepi or Shvedova/Kr. Pliskova in one of the juicier corners of the draw, particularly if you like your ladies Eastern European. Then could come Ivanovic/Lisicki/Ka. Pliskova. One more year and I make Keys the favorite in all those matches. But I'm still not convinced she's ready to take that leap at a major.

Best case scenario: When playing her best and really letting it flow, like this week in Eastbourne, Madison is breathtaking. Davenport comes to mind, but a better mover at her age.  With the confidence she must have gained from Eastbourne, and a magical fortnight serving, she could reach the semis. More likely scenario: 4th round.

Fun fact: I desperately am hoping for a Keys/Townsend 2nd round match so that (A) one of them can get to the third round and (B) we get a Battle of Illinois that could force people in my state pay attention to tennis!

6. Christina McHale
Rank: #49
First-round opponent: Chanelle Scheepers (RSA)
Best result: 3R (2012)
Draw rating: 5

Draw analysis: Christina (or "Tini" as I for no reason refer to her) should be the big favorite in the first round, as Scheepers' grass warmups have consisted of losing first round at a clay ITF event after losing first round at Roland Garros. But then comes Serena and <Boys2Men>We've come to the end of the road</Boys2Men>. Just can't see it. Not this year.

Best case scenario: A comfortable win over Scheepers and a distracted, unmotivated, unusually clumsy Serena. Still loses in straight sets.  More likely scenario: Actually that's pretty likely. 2nd round.

Fun fact: Wimbledon was where McHale was playing when she first came down with symptoms of Mono in 2012. I mean, it was at the Olympics, but still the site was Wimbledon.

7. Varvara Lepchenko
Rank: #57
First-round opponent: Tsvetana Pironkova (BUL)
Best result: 3R (2012)
Draw rating: 4

Draw analysis: Man, is there any more unpredictable player in the WTA than @Varunchik1? Before he settled on his "box of chocolates" metaphor, I hear Forrest Gump was going to say "Life is like Varvara Lepchenko." True story.** Anyway, yes, there are players who can confound us far more than "Vavs" (as I for no reason refer to her) - and one of them could be Pironkova. The former Wimbledon semifinalist & quarterfinalist won Sydney this year but then lost to Watson this week in Eastbourne. Still, she has a way stronger grass-court pedigree.  P-Ronk is also 4-1 vs V-Chenk and my guess is that that margin will only increase.  If Lepchenko does get through that, it's Errani or Garcia next (hmmm) then Doi/Svitolina/Date-Krumm/Makarova (HMMMM!). Each would be an opportunity ... for both players.

Best case scenario: Upsets Tsveti, makes quick work of 2R, outlasts KDK in 3, and flames out spectacularly in the 4th round against Radwanksa (or MLDB or Kuznetsova or Kontaveit). More likely scenario: 1st Round.

Fun fact: Lepchenko (2-0) is one of 9 players who are undefeated in Fed Cup singles for the USA, having played at least two matches.  The others: Martina Navratilova (15-0), Serena Williams (10-0), Pam Shriver (5-0), Jeanne Evert (4-0), Valerie Ziegenfuss (4-0), Peaches Bartkowicz (3-0), Amy Frazier (2-0), and of course Ashley Harkleroad (2-0)!

8. Lauren Davis
Rank: #58
First-round opponent: Alisa Kleybanova (RUS)
Best result: 1R (2013)
Draw rating: 3

Draw analysis: It was awesome seeing Kleybs get back to the Top 100 following her Hodgkin's Lymphoma diagnosis and treatment. But she seems to have plateaued since then: she upset Kvitova in Stuttgart and has lost all four matches since then - in straight sets. No grass court warmup for the Russian either. A good chance for the American, who would then face Pennetta (who's seemed a bit lost since her win at Indian Wells) or Cepelova (who seems totally lost since her final at Charleston). Next would be Sloane in a popcorn match for us USAmerican tennis heads.

Best case scenario: Grass wins over Paszek, Duval, Larsson, Pliskova, Errani & Hantuchova must have this young woman full of self-belief. That gets manifested in a mystical run to the 4th round and a new career-high ranking for the Ohioan. More likely scenario: 3rd round (and a new career-high ranking).

Fun fact: Lauren's Twitter feed is definitely your number-one source for both religious inspiration and dessert recipe retweets.

9. CoCo Vandeweghe
Rank: #69
First-round opponent: Garbine Muguruza (27/ESP)
Best result: 1R (2011, 2012, 20130)
Draw rating: 2 or 5

Draw analysis: I don't honestly know what the hell to say about this. It really kind of sucks that CoCo has one of the toughest draws of any USAmerican, given her there-are-no-adjectives win this week in s'Hertogenbosch. CoCo's game has developed quite nicely ever since she got into her spat with Putintseva in Brussels last year (Poots' game has ... not so much). Oh and she changed coaches.

On grass last year she lost first round Birmingham to Pliskova the Lesser by the PeakATP score of 7-6 (5) 6-7 (5) 5-7 and then first round Wimbledon to Kvitova 1-6 7-5 4-6. This year she was down a bunch to Muguruza until the heavens opened and after a rain break CoCo won handily. CoCo's serve has been on point this grass season (80 aces in one tournament!) but it's tough to make that finals-to-major turnaround for a relatively green ;-) player like CoCo, not to mention beating a tough player like Muguruza twice in two weeks. But if she CAN, she'd be the favorite vs Hsieh/Smitkova and then could face a VERY interesting 3rd rounder vs Azarenka; then would come the winner of Aga's section of the draw. It's all very intriguing. But first things first: Muguruza.  The Spaniard got to the semis of Den Bosch last year and shouldn't be looked past. Especially if she serves well and CoCo doesn't.

Best case scenario: CoCo's serve continues to be the biggest weapon on grass since Roundup® and carries her to the quarters. More likely scenario: post-Netherlands hangover and a 1st round exit.

Fun fact: Last year CoCo invited one of her harshest critics to coffee but he didn't respond to her.

I bet if you had a coffee with me @TheBoiledEgg you wouldn't find me to be such a nasty person as you are making me out to be.
— CoCo Vandeweghe (@CoCoVandey) June 10, 2013

10. Vania King
Rank: #75
First-round opponent: Yvonne Meusburger (AUT)
Best result: 2R (2006, 2009)
Draw rating: 5

Draw analysis: Moose Burger isn't particularly successful on grass. But she's more successful than Vania! This week, oddly, both had big wins - Yvonne over Kaia Kanepi and King over Eugenie Bouchard! Tough to read too much into either of those. More important was the next round, where YM lost handily to Muguruza and VK had to retire against CoCo. The injury makes this one impossible to call. Second round would likely be Li Na and I don't think Vania's at a place in her career where she can challenge even an erratic Li on grass.

Best case scenario: 2R. More likely scenario: 1R.

Fun fact: Vania is in 18th place all-time in prize money among US women. 5th among active players  (the other four: Serena, Venus, Raymond, Huber).

11. Anna Tatishvili
Rank: #114
First-round opponent: Serena Williams (1/USA)
Best result: 2R (2011, 2012)
Draw rating: 6

Draw analysis: Shitty.

Best case scenario: The problem is, Anna is coming back from injury and has a lot of losses since becoming an American citizen and switching her nation representation. I'm hopeful she has a good rest of the summer because I don't see her having a good start to it. A set off Serena would be a massive upset. More likely scenario: no sets off Serena.

Fun fact: "Tatish-vili [clap, clap, clap-clap-clap]" lends itself to easy chanting by small groups of Georgians in Queens, New York. I have no clue what kind of reception she'll encounter there this year...

12. Victoria Duval
Rank: #115
First-round opponent: Sorana Cirstea (29/ROU)
Best result: first appearance
Draw rating: 4.5

Draw analysis: The only USAmerican to qualify for Wimbledon (over Nicole Gibbs, one of 5 US Americans to lose in the final round of qualies) has in the future a bright career and in the present a bad back. Without the injury I'd like her chances vs Sori, who had lost 7 straight WTA matches before making the 3rd round of Roland Garros, but who also beat Ivanovic in Fed Cup in the middle of all that.  This also will be Cirstea's first grass court match of the season, and Vicky's 8th. So there's a chance. But then would come Bencic or Rybarikova, then likely Halep.

Best case scenario: Vicky enters the Top 100 with authoriteh, shocking Cirstea and her second round opponent and putting a scare into Halep. More likely scenario: 1st round.

Fun fact: This will be Duval's first singles match against a Romanian player.

13. Taylor Townsend
Rank: #148
First-round opponent: Klara Koukalova (31/CZE)
Best result: first appearance
Draw rating: 5

Draw analysis: I mean I just wish Taylor had played a grass warm-up tournament instead of Jogging With Rahm. Anyway, Taylor's gonna be great on grass some day. Just not sure it will be immediately, against a good grass player. But if anyone can pull it off, it's TayTo. One thing she doesn't seem to lack is a winning attitude. A win would bring her to the aforementioned Bring-the-Illinoise showdown.

Best case scenario: 4R and even more people on my CTA bus will be talking about her. More likely scenario: 1R.

Fun fact: Taylor is fun. It's a fact.

......

Predicted total number of matches won: 20

Well there you have it, everyone! A whole lot of words, but no real insight or bold predictions! And there's more to come with the fellas!

*The most of any nation! #merica
**Fake story

The evolution of an American fan of American tennis

One of the great thing about being a tennis fan is the ability to celebrate the sport on one's own terms. Everyone comes at his or her fandom from a unique perspective, but the story of how and why a particular brand of fandom developed is often an untold story.  This is my version of how, as a tennis fan, I came to be almost exclusively interested in following the careers of players representing the USA. 

Consider it my manifesto!

During this 2014 World Cup, displays of intense nationalism are numbingly commonplace. Countless of ordinaries (including me) who wouldn't know a Neymar from a Nomar still get a big rush when the country of their birth scores an elusive goal; wins a valuable three points. And plenty of world-weary sophisticates (including me) who otherwise find displays of naked patriotism to be at best cringe-worthy and at worst reifications of neocolonialist subjugation will find nothing odd about strapping on a flag and crowing about a last-second victory over a relatively poor African country.

The same can happen on a more local level, say with professional teams representing certain cities. Sure you have plenty of Miami Heat or Manchester United fans all over the world. But the chances of any one person being an absolute FANATIC about the Kansas City Royals or the ... ummm ... Brisbane Lions are greatly increased by being from or in or otherwise connected to those particular cities. Those places.

Endless columns and books can and have been written about this phenomenon; what it means about identification and otherization; whether it's good or bad or just is. I'm not about to engage in any exercises in sociology or human psychology. All I know is that I find myself an avid fan of USA tennis players and I unabashedly root for them to win WIN WINNNNNNN to an acute degree.

I root for US tennis players even when I find myself deeply disturbed by their awful off-court statements, their political affiliations, or the ugliness of their games or on-court demeanor or shenanigans. I root for them whether they are the underdogs or the favorites, whether I've even seen them play or not, whether they've disappointed me for what I swore was the last time or have yet to crush my hopes and spirit.

I was a casual fan as a youngster. I remember my mom would watch some events featuring Goolagong, Conners, Evert, and King but I wasn't obsessed by it.  In high school a friend of mine told me about this fellow teen named Andre Agassi and I remember following his scores in the papers with some enthusiasm.  Michael Chang's French Open win was a turning point (he was my favorite player for nigh on a decade). Zina Garrison's 1990 Wimbledon final run was another exiting time. The Capriati/Seles 1991 US Open semi. The early reports of the next phenom: Venus Williams. (Looking back, it's a bit embarrassing the riches we had.)

I was a pretty big fan of tennis through the early 90s in college and then even more so with the advent of the internet. It was fun to connect with other fans, however remotely, and debate dumb issues on bulletin boards.

I have had non-US faves over the years.  Particularly in the early 2000s I will admit I did enjoy supporting underdogs or players I thought were unfairly castigated (Kournikova). Then there were my players from underrepresented parts of the world: Your Paradorn Srichaphans. Your Milagros Sequeras.  Your Angelique Widjajas.  I rooted hard for them for awhile.  And I became a Momo-for-lifer following her courageous coming out.

But in my heart I was a homer. And I've just found that the more I started attending professional tennis events and closely following rankings and being able to watch clips online and engage with social media, the more it was clear: the results I cared most about, the matches I most wanted to see, and the players who were able to get me most illogically passionate were the Americans. Chanda Rubin. James Blake. Jennifer Capriati. Robby Ginepri.

Of course, the tennis establishment promotes this nation-based approach to tennis to a great extent. It's enforced by very fact that each player has that three-letter acronym or flag by their name ... that official team competitions are nearly de rigeur and all by country ... that the vast number of wildcards are given to players representing a particular country. And the media (in every country it seems) exponentially reinforces that impulse.

Historically there have been exceptions for me among US players. It's never been easy for me to root for Serena Williams (I'm often secretly happy when she loses), and for years Venus also was a tough one for me to connect with. A lot of that had to do with my utter disdain for Richard Williams. I also found Pete Sampras nearly impossible to root for after his first major victory in 1991. Not to root for US players was a luxury at one time - and their dominance came at a time when there were other choices (Seles, Agassi, Davenport) among top-tier players. Those days sure aren't coming back, and I can't imagine me being blase about any US player under 30 today challenging for a major - or minor for that matter.  US players are the underdogs today in the grand scheme of things, while Europe is the big bad bully.*  I'm probably happier with the hapless.

In any case, the older I've gotten, the more I've traveled, and the less idealistic I've become, the more at peace I've become with being a tennis nationalist.  And it's led me to interesting new corners of the tennis world: Futures events, NCAA tennis, juniors.  It's been fun - watching players slowly (or not-so-slowly) climb the rankings; connecting with other unabashed American fans of American tennis; even at times debating those who will gleefully trash the current batch of American players.  And the trip I took in April with my boyfriend to watch the US women valiantly try to beat France in Fed Cup was the apotheosis of my current fandom. That was fun.

Oh and in the final few days of majors, I still have the ability to put aside the lack of US players and root for Roger over Andy, Andy over Novak, and Novak over Rafa. I'm not a total zealot.

*For what it's worth, I absolutely love Europe the place and its cultures and people. Love. It.

New USA Career-High Rankings - June 16, 2014

Each week I will endeavor to bring you a list of USAmerican players who have reached a new career-high ranking. This list is not exhaustive but will cover most players in the Top 1000. 

New ATP Career-High Rankings - June 16, 2014 (previous high & date achieved in parentheses)
Mitchell Krueger 349 (356 - 6/9)
Evan King 436 (437 - 5/19)
Jared Donaldson 474 (546 - 6/9)
Noah Rubin 542 (543 - 6/9)
Devin McCarthy 738 (788 - 4/7)
Peter Kobelt 1126 (1894 - 1/6)

Donaldson got his boost from the Turkey Futures a week ago, at which he won his first title; Kobalt & McCarthy got theirs from twin semis at the Israel Futures event a week ago. Kobelt will get another huge boost from his final this past week in Israel, and McCarthy will get a nice one as well from his second semi in two weeks.

New WTA Career-High Rankings - June 16, 2014 (previous high & date achieved in parentheses)
Victoria Duval 115 (126 - 5/26)
Allie Kiick 141 (142 - 6/9)
Taylor Townsend 148 (150 - 6/9)
Nicole Gibbs 152 (159 - 6/9)
Denise Muresan 434 (467 - 6/9)
Danielle Lao 446 (475 - 6/9)
Christina Makarova 593 (606 - 11/4/13)
Anamika Bhargava 670 (679 - 6/9)
Ellie Halbauer 719 (772 - 6/9)
Karina Kristina Vyrlan 772 (777 - 3/17)
Josie Kuhlman 833 (837 - 6/9)
Tornado Alicia Black 875 (885 - 6/9)

El Paso (week of June 3) was moved later in the year from last year. Sanaz Marand, playing in Europe, saw her titlist points drop off, but a few players got a nice lift from their wins there, including Muresan, who had a QF, and Lao, Makarova, and 16-year-old Halbauer, each of whom got to the second round.  Gibbs will go even higher next week thanks to her semifinal at the $25K in Nottingham, which will be added next week.**

**Correction from the ever-on-point Colette Lewis of Zoo Tennis (@zootennis) who pointed out that Nottingham was a $50K and that those points were in fact added this week. I still think Nicole will go a bit higher next week as just about everyone near her in the rankings are at Wimbledon qualies this week, and so some people won't be able to defend points the collected last year at tour-level and ITF events.