Tuesday, December 1, 2015

How'd we do? WTA 2015 version


The participation for predicting the ranking order for American women in 2015 was the lowest of the three contests we held last December. Hopefully we get greater participation next year!

PREDICTED FINISH, USA WOMEN, 2015 YEAR-END RANKINGS


ParsaPatrick RourkeJonathan Kelley
1. Serena1. Serena1. Serena (2)
2. Keys2. Keys2. Keys (15)
3. Sloane3. Sloane3. Venus (19)
4. CoCo4. Venus4. CoCo (25)
5. Venus5. Lepchenko5. Lepchenko (30)
6. Riske6. Davis6. Sloane (40)
7. Rogers7. McHale7. Riske (45)
8. Lepchenko8. Riske8. McHale (50)
9. McHale9. CoCo9. Townsend (60)
10. Townsend10. Townsend10. Mattek-Sands (65)

Top 10 USA women, 11/30/2015 ranking

1. Serena Williams (1)
2. Venus Williams (7)
3. Madison Keys (18)
4. Sloane Stephens (30)
5. CoCo Vandeweghe (37)
6. Madison Brengle (40)
7. Varvara Lepchenko (47)
8. Bethanie Mattek-Sands (60)
9. Christina McHale (63)
10. Irina Falconi (76)

Others picked:
11. Lauren Davis (88)
12. Alison Riske (98)
19. Shelby Rogers (149)
35. Taylor Townsend (304)

Analysis:

Serena was picked to finish #1 and boy did she. But nobody expected Venus to have the year she did (I'd argue few outside Venus' biggest fans did). Nor did anyone expect Madison Brengle to be a Top 40 player. Congrats to all of them! Unfortunately, Taylor Townsend did not have the results we all expected, and cost us all at least 25 points; let's hoping she turns things around for 2016!

The champion with Top 10 finisher,
Irina Falconi.
Jonathan Kelley: 47 points
Did not pick: Brengle (5), Falconi (1)

As the only player to predict Bethanie Mattek-Sands' great post-injury season (coming within 5 rankings spots of her final position), I have to thank her for getting me this win. I overestimated Varvara Lepchenko and Alison Riske, and underestimated Sloane Stephens, but otherwise did a pretty decent job.

Patrick Rourke: 55 points
Did not pick: Brengle (5), Mattek-Sands (3), Falconi (1)

Patrick did a pretty good job, but was hurt by picking CoCo Vandeweghe so low, while putting Lauren Davis a bit too high. But still, not bad at all considering that he wasn't really following the women's tour very closely as far as I could tell!

Parsa: 59 points
Did not pick: Brengle (5), Mattek-Sands (3), Falconi (1)

Parsa did as well as -- or better than -- the other two with one glaring exception: picking Shelby Rogers in the #7 spot. It was by no means a bad pick, as Rogers was a Top 70 player in September 2014, but she couldn't defend a couple of her big results from last year, thanks in large part to injury. Hopefully she'll be well and raring to go in 2016 because she is without doubt a talented player.


Thanks again to everyone who participated, and stay tuned for 2016 predictions in a few weeks!

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